Taichung Weather Station of CWB - North District

The tornado is coming

The efficiency is low, and the contractor is expected to receive more training.

Do n’t say you do n’t know that there is a weather station here, but it is close to the business district, but there is tranquil beauty

It’s not worth asking the Meteorological Bureau to report indiscriminately, saying that the weather turned out to be rainy on a sunny day.

In the peaceful Zhong'an, it was explained in detail that the mood of nature produced joy, anger, sorrow,-grains gathered, and the earth told that people's hearts ♥♥♥! lovely! The staff of the Central Meteorological Bureau listened well! Is bad! The full receipt is as inclusive as the weather. Thank you for your hard foresight and remind people of your preparations. Bless meteorological staff and the public health and safety.

Meteorological forecasts feel more and more diversified, and the forecast range is getting wider and wider, but the accuracy is getting lower and lower. Sometimes the public is reminded to pay attention to lightning strikes, strong winds, heavy rains... As a result, it was only ten seconds of "heavy rain". I really don’t know how to interpret the two words forecast? When a typhoon encounters a typhoon, the rainfall forecast sometimes has a large error, and it can be used. Rest after rest, it’s like fried double wraps turned into twists, and twists turned into fritters~ The above is my feeling of living in Taichung; the accuracy of weather forecasts in the north is fairly high. Take the forecast for July 110, the forecast on the 4th is that there will be a low pressure in the east of the Philippines at 30 kilometers per hour heading towards the Bashi Channel. On July 5, when it is close to Hengchun half , it will be under favorable conditions for its development. (It is possible) the formation of a quasi-typhoon "Fireworks" will (do not rule out) the launch of the land police, and the result is that the terrain is not conducive to the development of the typhoon after a day, and at this time the road map of the "Fireworks" of various countries has been yellow over the island of Taiwan. Lines, green lines, and blue lines have drawn a lot, and some have drawn typhoon paths from Huadong to northwest through the heart... And the result? "Fireworks" is just fireworks, because it has not been formed. I am writing this comment today to tell the public that weather forecasting does have its difficulties and uncertainties, but the forecasters of the Meteorological Bureau should not judge too much, otherwise I will report the weather, anyway. Use words such as (not ruled out) (possible) (upper break) (lower break), or the typhoon is slightly (northern) (east) or 夲 to predict that it will land from a certain place and then become (side ball), etc. Forecasting in specific terms is much like a weather forecaster. Of course, perhaps the country’s forecasting equipment is not the most advanced. For this, I hope that the government will provide more funding for the Meteorological Bureau to make the forecasts more accurate. (On July 16, 110, meteorological experts predicted that a low pressure will form a typhoon, which may turn to the East China Sea or turn north to Japan. On July 17, the Meteorological Bureau issued a typhoon potential map, and it was surprisingly found that the entire island of Taiwan was included. , The difference is one day before and after, and the forecast is several thousand kilometers away. The forecast also said that there are many inaccuracy factors. So why not wait two days before drawing a more accurate road map? The second one below is the potential released on July 17. Figure. The third is the path map of each country. At 2 am on July 18th, Typhoon No. 6 (fireworks) finally formed, and the Meteorological Bureau will track (Southern revision), and (do not rule out) the possibility of direct invasion of the taiwan. No. The four path maps were issued by the Meteorological Bureau on July 18. The fifth is a path map issued by the National Disaster Prevention Science and Technology Center, which clearly shows that the typhoon will pass through the sea in the northern part of the island. On July 19, it was 9:30 a.m. The TV weather anchor also reported that the uncertainty of the typhoon "Fireworks" is extremely high, and the error circle is about 70%. It is possible that such weather forecasts as (northern turn wipe) or (southern pressure flutter) make people very dumbfounded. Please everyone Look at the route map of various countries released on July 19. China's Central Meteorological Bureau has also set the typhoon route to (Northern Xiu). In this route map, Taiwan, the United States, Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong and other countries participate, and Taiwan The Central Meteorological Bureau of China has the highest accuracy in predicting the path. Meteorological expert Peng Qiming estimated that Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Yilan, Taoyuan, Hsinchu counties and cities may be in the storm circle, and the typhoon will make landfall in the north. The Central Meteorological Bureau said it will The Marine and Land Police were released on the 21st and 22nd. However, I watched the early morning TV weather news on the 21st, and the path of "Fireworks" moved northward, so the land police may postpone the release. July 21st, 12 noon noon news. The TV stations also forecasted the "fireworks" (possibly) to turn north, but still (not ruled out) the center will land. However, the prediction path of various countries tends to be the same, thinking that the center will advance to the northeast sea. The meteorological expert Peng Qiming predicts the "fireworks" It will pass through northern Taiwan on the 24th. The TV weather at 5 pm on July 21 said that the typhoon was slightly northward, and the path map changed again. At 9 am on July 22nd, TVBS reported in the news that the fireworks will be westward after the typhoon. The path will go northwest. Wu Derong said that there will be heavy rain levels to the north of the central area. People should pay attention to the catastrophic rain. On the 22nd noon news, the Dongsen TV showed the headline "Northern Turning Position is a Variable, Lu Jingde Wasn't It?" Morning> 11 o’clock in the evening, “Critical Moments” also mentioned that CNN predicted that the outer circulation of the fireworks typhoon would bring one meter high rainfall to Taiwan. At noon on July 23, the Dongsen News forecasted that the typhoon had accelerated from 9 kilometers per hour to 14 kilometers per hour. , Turn northwest to northwest and move forward. It is very likely to pass by the northeast corner. The storm radius has also increased to 220 kilometers, reminding 9 counties and cities north of Taichung that there will be heavy rain. Heavy rain levels, southwestern airflow will replace the southwestern belt after the 25th It’s raining. The Meteorological Bureau has yet to issue a ground police. At 10 pm on July 23, the anchor of China TV News Information Station reported that the fireworks will be the closest to Taiwan from the evening to 6 am tomorrow. The fireworks will gradually start after noon on the 24th. Stay away. I wrote that it took 8 days to follow up the report on the progress of the fireworks typhoon. The fireworks’ rapid tortoise advance was originally everyone was very worried that Taiwan would become a stronger Taiwan. Unexpectedly, the crisis was a turning point, and it slowed to the end. At the end of the north turn, although the storm radius increased to 220 kilometers, because of its speed, there was still a long distance from Taiwan when it turned north. Therefore, Taiwan escaped this invasion. God bless Taiwan. The only thing that is puzzled. It’s the Central Meteorological Bureau’s trending in the same path in various countries. Domestic meteorological experts, weather experts, disaster prevention technology, and typhoon forums have all predicted that fireworks will pass through the northern sea, and the Meteorological Bureau still publishes (not ruled out) predictions that typhoons will land, or say The probability of landing is reduced. This kind of step-by-step, step-by-step forecasting is really bureaucratic and too conservative in judgment. In other words, the meteorological bureau's (uncertainty factor) for typhoon development is much higher than other private units. For example, on July 18, the National Science and Technology Disaster Prevention Center released a path map for fireworks to pass through the northern sea. Although the paths are somewhat different, the final judgment is correct. The Meteorological Bureau issued a potential error circle of about 70%. The probability of being attacked in Shitu and all parts of the province, such as Hsinchu 35%, Miaoli 34%, Taichung 30%, etc., personally feel that it is meaningless to superfluous, you can say "Typhoon must be strictly guarded north of Tainan ( Probably) The probability of attack> is OK. In short, the firework typhoon does give meteorologists a rare learning experience. The path of the firework is unpredictable, and the process is as tortuous as the plot development of the (Orient Express Murder). And I am. Also, after the epidemic prevention alert was lowered to Level 2 on July 27, 110, drive (turn north) to Hsinchu Nanliao for a look (sea view) Or (south pressure) to Tainan to see (road view), or (not ruled out) to Zengwen Reservoir (landing) to see the surrounding mountains and waters, if there is (heavy rain) on the way (probably) there will be (percent) 50 probability) cancel the trip and let (southwest air) send me home all the way.

In the past two or three years, weather forecasts have become more and more inaccurate. This year, there is a ridiculously more than 20% chance of rain from day to night. If it gets too hot, there will be no rain. Where does this chance come from?